Earth will be home to 8.8 billion souls by 2100, two billion fewer than current UN projections, according to a major study published Wednesday that predicts new global power alignments shaped by declining fertility rates and populations in gray.
By the end of the century, 183 of 195 countries, except for an influx of immigrants, will have fallen below the replacement threshold necessary to maintain population levels, an international team of researchers reported in The Lancet.
More than 20 countries, including Japan, Spain, Italy, Thailand, Portugal, South Korea and Poland, will see their number decrease by at least half.
China will drop almost as much, from 1.4 billion people today to 730 million in 80 years.
Meanwhile, sub-Saharan Africa will triple to some three billion people, with Nigeria only expanding to almost 800 million in 2100, second only to India's 1.1 billion.
"These forecasts suggest good news for the environment, with less stress on food production systems and lower carbon emissions, as well as a major economic opportunity for parts of sub-Saharan Africa," said lead author Christopher Murray, director of the Institute. of Health Metrics and Assessment (IHME) at the University of Washington, told AFP.
"However, most countries outside of Africa will see a reduction in the workforce and reversal of population pyramids, which will have profound negative consequences for the economy."
For high-income countries in this category, the best solutions to maintain population levels and economic growth will be flexible immigration policies and social support for families who want to have children, the study concluded.
"However, in the face of population decline, there is a very real danger that some countries will consider policies that restrict access to reproductive health services, with potentially devastating consequences," Murray said.
- 866 million people over 80 -
"It is imperative that women's freedom and rights are at the top of every government's development agenda."
Social services and health systems will need to be revised to accommodate much older populations.
As fertility declines and life expectancy increases worldwide, the number of children under the age of five is forecast to decrease by more than 40 percent, from 681 million in 2017 to 401 million in 2,100, according to the study. .
At the other end of the spectrum, 2.37 billion people, more than a quarter of the world's population, will be over 65 by then.
Those over 80 will increase from about 140 million today to 866 million.
Sharp falls in the number and proportion of the working-age population will also pose enormous challenges in many countries.
"Societies will fight to grow with fewer workers and taxpayers," said Stein Emil Vollset, professor at the IHME.
The number of people of working age in China, for example, will drop from about 950 million today to just over 350 million by the end of the century, a drop of 62 percent.
The decline in India is expected to be less pronounced, from 762 to 578 million.
In Nigeria, by contrast, the active workforce will expand from 86 million today to more than 450 million in 2100.
According to the researchers, these tectonic changes will also reorganize the hierarchical order in terms of economic influence.
From NDTV News
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